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<channel>
	<title>Eric Riess</title>
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	<link>http://ericriess.com</link>
	<description>Just another WordPress weblog</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 26 Jul 2010 16:30:35 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>The New Jounali$m</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/the-new-jounalim/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/the-new-jounalim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Jul 2010 16:30:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coaching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=183</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The following is an excerpt from a &#8216;Wall Street Journal&#8217;  interview with Randy Michaels, the CEO of the Tribune Companies. It reflects an attitude that will send a chill down the spine of local journalists everywhere and explains why these newspapers will never succeed as a group and will hopefully be sold off to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The following is an excerpt from a &#8216;Wall Street Journal&#8217;  interview with Randy Michaels, the CEO of the Tribune Companies. It reflects an attitude that will send a chill down the spine of local journalists everywhere and explains why these newspapers will never succeed as a group and will hopefully be sold off to revert to local ownership.</p>
<p> &#8220;WSJ: You&#8217;ve centralized the production of foreign and national news across your papers to save money and manpower. What have you done and why?</p>
<p>Mr. Michaels: Stories [are] laid out in modules — standard sizes with collections of headlines, content, images [reducing the need for layout and copy editors]. If you pick up the Allentown [Pa.] Morning Call, the foreign news was written in Los Angeles and the national news was written in either Chicago or Washington. It&#8217;s probably higher quality journalism than a local paper that size is going to be able to afford.&#8221;</p>
<p>In many ways I still consider myself a journalist &#8211; once it&#8217;s in your blood there&#8217;s not much you can do. I have seen too many newspapers ruined by this kind of number-crunching rationale and it pains me to see it repeated.</p>
<p>As a coach and managerial consultant it strikes me as exactly the wrong message to be sending to the employees who are working to get you out of the financial hole you put them in.</p>
<p>You can read the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703467304575383193051347282.html?mod=djemMM_t">full interview here</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Real Eco-Story</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/the-real-eco-story/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/the-real-eco-story/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2010 16:35:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Book Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you are among the legions of Americans looking for the  best way to rescue the planet from ecological disaster, Fred Pearce&#8217;s &#8220;Confessions of an Eco-Sinner&#8221; is a must read.
While Pearce is based in England and his examples and specifics are tailored to the experiences of that country, his investigations are enlightening for anyone [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you are among the legions of Americans looking for the  best way to rescue the planet from ecological disaster,<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Confessions-Eco-Sinner-Tracking-Sources-Stuff/dp/0807085952/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#038;s=books&#038;qid=1279298109&#038;sr=8-1"> Fred Pearce&#8217;s &#8220;Confessions of an Eco-Sinner&#8221;</a> is a must read.</p>
<p>While Pearce is based in England and his examples and specifics are tailored to the experiences of that country, his investigations are enlightening for anyone who has ever wondered what &#8216;fair trade&#8217; really means.</p>
<p>Pearce takes number of common beliefs or  trademarks and follows them back to their source to see if they are really having the ecological and economic impact we expect.</p>
<p>So, for example, he traces the origination of &#8216;Fair Trade&#8217; coffee to see if there really is some  benefit to farmers. He doesn&#8217;t just research the topic in books and articles. He&#8217;s attends coffee bean auctions in Kenya with the buyers of the coffee and interviews the farmers who make more per pound for their fair trade crop. He asks them directly, if the extra work is worth it. He is not the most popular man in the room.</p>
<p>He looks at the common banana and finds the seeds of an impending economic disaster.</p>
<p>He looks at cotton, &#8220;The Fabric of our Lives,&#8221; as the ad tell us and finds out  exactly what it means to the plant, whether it&#8217;s grown organically or not. </p>
<p>He looks at everyday items, from aluminum beer cans to the shrimp cocktail, to find out the real costs of production. </p>
<p>Not all the news is bad, some stories have a happy ending creating a system where both the people and the planet  benefit, but it&#8217;s his intrepid investigations that are the real story.</p>
<p>Unless you&#8217;ve done considerable reading, or conducted your own research, I doubt you&#8217;ll read more than a few pages before coming across  nugget that will have you reconsidering what you do to save the planet.</p>
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		<title>Finding Your Vocation</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/finding-your-vocation/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/finding-your-vocation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jul 2010 21:46:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coaching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=176</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is it really this easy? I went to a Commonwealth Club lecture recently by Craig Nathanson, a coach and author, who&#8217;s main theme was to encourage people over 40 to find work that is not just a paycheck, but is a vocation -something that is fueled by an inner passion.
It was one of those lectures [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is it really this easy? I went to a <a href="http://www.commonwealthclub.org/about/">Commonwealth Club</a> lecture recently by<a href="http://www.thevocationalcoach.com/"> Craig Nathanson</a>, a coach and author, who&#8217;s main theme was to encourage people over 40 to find work that is not just a paycheck, but is a vocation -something that is fueled by an inner passion.</p>
<p>It was one of those lectures where the audience members left enthused and ready to follow his seven step approach to fame and fortune. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, while I agree that finding a job which provides more than an economic payoff is a great goal, I couldn&#8217;t help make a few observations based in the real world.</p>
<p>The concept of a fulfilling job is a relatively new concept. After World War II our parent&#8217;s generation found a &#8216;career&#8217; with a company who would hire them. A higher calling was not even a consideration. Providing for the family was paramount.</p>
<p>The economy we face today is similar and while, as Nathanson says, the country might be stronger if we all found our vocation, the reality is that money is a necessity. During the Q and A session it was clear financial issues also concerned some audience members.</p>
<p>I have several clients who are perfectly happy working for a paycheck which allows them to support their family and pursue a raft of hobbies and interests which provide purpose to their lives. Nathanson suggested that they may be a rationalizing their situation and that it was not a long-term recipe for happiness.</p>
<p>I would also note that despite the seven-step approach Mr. Nathanson suggests, not everyone can be an entrepreneur and create a job out of their own interests. Not everyone has the ability to complete all the steps &#8211; liking writing an e-zine article &#8211; that will have the world beating a path to their door.</p>
<p>I have several other issues with many of Mr. Nathanson&#8217;s specifics but they would take too much room to detail. While I urge my clients to find their passion and explore ways to make it a career, I also know that enthusiasm has to be tempered with reality  &#8211; especially in an economy with over 10% unemployment.</p>
<p>I have tremendous respect for the  drive, creativity and passion of my clients but they cannot overcome the disappointment of a bad idea executed poorly.</p>
<p>Finding your passion may mean that you never have to work but you have to be realistic. One point I agree on with Nathanson -it&#8217;s a coaches job to help guide you toward the goals you set.</p>
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		<title>Brains in Crises</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/brains-in-crises/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/brains-in-crises/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jun 2010 00:39:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Book Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coaching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=173</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Barbara Strauch wants Baby Boomers to stop worrying about their &#8217;senior moments.&#8217;
Her latest book, &#8220;The Secret Life of the Grown-Up Brain,&#8221; attempts to explain what&#8217;s going on when middle-age men and women walk from one room to another but can&#8217;t remember why.
You&#8217;ll be happy to know that there are a raft of scientists and psychologists [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barbara Strauch wants Baby Boomers to stop worrying about their &#8217;senior moments.&#8217;<br />
Her latest book, &#8220;The Secret Life of the Grown-Up Brain,&#8221; attempts to explain what&#8217;s going on when middle-age men and women walk from one room to another but can&#8217;t remember why.</p>
<p>You&#8217;ll be happy to know that there are a raft of scientists and psychologists studying brain functioning and trying to figure out what&#8217;s going on. But Ms Strauch, who admits to being among the age group she&#8217;s trying to put at ease, wants everyone to know, it&#8217;s normal, and better yet, it&#8217;s nothing to worry about.</p>
<p>Her book, like many written by journalist is easy to read and well written. I&#8217;m not sure you&#8217;d call it scholarly but it accomplishes its purpose. </p>
<p>If you&#8217;re middle aged there are changes in your brain that make it tougher to learn, and remember. But, she notes, our mature brains are much better at number of things, such as recognizing patterns and putting things in context, that allow us to keep up with our younger co-workers.</p>
<p>She points out a number of factors which seem to impact better brain function and then spends the last chapter explaining what we can do about it. Unfortunately she notes there&#8217;s no real evidence that all those Brain Games, given away on NPR fund-raisers, really  make any difference. </p>
<p>Fist of all, even those that have been rigorously tested in double-blind longitudinal studies, base their conclusions on self reporting. Additionally, only one of the games have even been subject to any testing &#8211; sponsored by the game manufacturers &#8211; and the rest are just basing their claims on marketing hype.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Secret Life of the Grown-Up Brain&#8221; is a followup to her book on teenager brain function. It&#8217;s an interesting read and should help a lot of Baby Boomers laugh at the endless collection of jokes about our absent minded antics.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s worth a read to find out what really going in our brain on as we age.</p>
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		<title>Greek Debt 101</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/greek-debt-101/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/greek-debt-101/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 May 2010 18:50:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=166</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#8217;t usually comment on national and international news but this week I  ran into an explanation of the whole Greek debt mess that helped me understand what&#8217;s going on.
In case you haven&#8217;t been following the news I&#8217;ll add some background. The world&#8217;s financial markets have been in an uproar over the last month [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t usually comment on national and international news but this week I  ran into an explanation of the whole Greek debt mess that helped me understand what&#8217;s going on.</p>
<p>In case you haven&#8217;t been following the news I&#8217;ll add some background. The world&#8217;s financial markets have been in an uproar over the last month because of fears that the Greek government will not be able to pay back money they owe to bankers and investors. The European Union has now pledged $140 billion to help them out.</p>
<p>The bailout has the Greek citizens up in arms because it will mean, tax increases, cuts in public spending (pensions, salaries) and a general belt-cinching they feel is unfair.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the setup as they say, in the TV biz. But the reasons turn out to be pretty simple to understand.</p>
<p>The owner of a local business, who I know pretty well, is a Greek-American but he still has family back in the old country and visits often. So as I started to walk out of his shop with my purchase I asked, &#8220;What&#8217;s going on back home?&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s simple&#8221; he says. &#8220;You see that piece of paper?&#8221;  he asks, pointing to my receipt. &#8220;In all the years I&#8217;ve been going back, and all the things I&#8217;ve bought, I never got a piece of paper. They don&#8217;t write anything down, so the government has no idea who paid for what, or how much tax they should be getting. Now, they&#8217;re paying the price and they don&#8217;t like it.&#8221;</p>
<p>Sometimes, even the most complex international problems have a simple explanation. I&#8217;m sure the citizens of Greece have other opinions but  this one makes sense to me.</p>
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		<title>Decisions, Decisions</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/decisions-decisions/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/decisions-decisions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 00:20:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coaching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wellness]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;How We Decide&#8221;, a fascinating book by Jonah Lehrer, is another is the long line of texts trying to explain to the general public how our brains work.
Lehrer uses real life examples to illustrate science, helping us understand the split-second decisions made by NFL quarterbacks, airline pilots, and even soldiers in combat situations.
A good portion [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;How We Decide&#8221;, a fascinating book by Jonah Lehrer, is another is the long line of texts trying to explain to the general public how our brains work.</p>
<p>Lehrer uses real life examples to illustrate science, helping us understand the split-second decisions made by NFL quarterbacks, airline pilots, and even soldiers in combat situations.</p>
<p>A good portion of the book retraces many of the points made by the now-popular science of behavioral economics &#8211; books such as &#8220;Freakonomics,&#8217; &#8216;Predictably Irrational&#8217; and &#8216;Nudge.&#8217; In fact all these books seem to use the same set of experiments to prove their points. </p>
<p>As their most basic level they all help us understand why marketing works as well as it does.</p>
<p>But Lehrer&#8217;s biggest contribution may be his last few chapters as he explains the process that scientists think goes on in our brains as we make a decision. Using fMRI which measures brain activity, they can look at which sections of the brain are most active as we make various kinds of decisions. Everything from simple &#8220;either-or&#8221; choices to more complex moral decisions based on values that are ingrained at a very early age.</p>
<p>His conclusion,- that decisions are basically a three way battle &#8211; suggests that the best tactic is to let brain&#8217;s thought centers battle things out, while you take a break.</p>
<p>Unconsciously, your brain will make a decision and your conscious mind will announce it. It may seem like an unconscious act but you really have no idea what was going on in your brain.</p>
<p>One section I found particularly helpful is the explanation of  what&#8217;s really going on when we&#8217;re positive we have the right answer to almost anything. From politics to predicting human behavior, Lehrer notes, if we&#8217;re that sure, we&#8217;re probably wrong because we tend to ignore facts that don&#8217;t support the decision we already made.</p>
<p>So if you&#8217;re looking for something that&#8217;s easy to read on the beach but has a little more substance than that romance novel or murder mystery, try &#8216;How We Decide,&#8217; and see what&#8217;s really going on between your ears.</p>
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		<title>Small Town Living</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/small-town-living/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/small-town-living/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Apr 2010 17:20:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=161</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I live in a small town. It&#8217;s the kind of place where clocks don&#8217;t really matter. We have a small shopping area with a pharmacy, which includes the post office, two restaurants, a grocery store, real estate office , a bank and a hardware store &#8211; not to mention the gas station across the street.
Most [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I live in a small town. It&#8217;s the kind of place where clocks don&#8217;t really matter. We have a small shopping area with a pharmacy, which includes the post office, two restaurants, a grocery store, real estate office , a bank and a hardware store &#8211; not to mention the gas station across the street.</p>
<p>Most of the businesses have signs in the windows suggesting they open at 9:00 a.m.  It&#8217;s a very loose interpretation of time. If, for some unknown reason, you need something that early you&#8217;ll probably find yourself waiting at the door for the owner. No one seems to mind if it&#8217;s 9:00 or even 9:15 when the store opens.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the price you pay for knowing the comforts of small-town living where everyone knows your name and  the police chief doubles as town manager. The fact that we have a monthly newspaper may tell you a bit about the pace of life around here.</p>
<p>Biggest news recently was last weekend when an errant, and apparently drunk, &#8216;out of town&#8217; driver drove into the telephone switching box on the main drag. Suddenly 900 homes had no landlines at 5:00 a.m. on a Saturday morning.</p>
<p>At 9:15, when a neighbor came by to ask about my service, I used my internet-based line to call the phone company. I began the slow climb up the AT&#038;T phone tree finally reaching a live person to explain that I have no service. After a pause I was told that the earliest they could have someone out here was the following Tuesday.</p>
<p>&#8220;No,&#8221; I replied, &#8220;You don;t understand, someone ran into the main switch box and there are probably many folks without service so I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ll want to work on it sooner.&#8221;</p>
<p>Suddenly I was on the phone with Lilly Tomlin&#8217;s &#8220;Ernestine&#8221; character from the 70&#8217;s. &#8220;Gee,&#8221; he said, &#8220;We don&#8217;t have many calls about it.&#8221;</p>
<p>Sorry, I lost it, and screamed into the phone, &#8220;That&#8217;s because they don&#8217;t have phone service&#8230;&#8221; and hung up. </p>
<p>I called the police and they said they had already called their emergency number and the situation would be addressed. Crews were out later that day. </p>
<p>These are the joys of small-town living.</p>
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		<title>Ending Overeating</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/ending-overeating/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/ending-overeating/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Apr 2010 05:07:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I finally finished one of those books sitting next to my bed. &#8220;The End of Overeating&#8221; by David Kessler, MD.
Dr. Kessler,was the former head of the FDA before returning to the Bay Area for a short stint as head of the Medical Center at U.C. San Francisco. The fact that he&#8217;s currently the center of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I finally finished one of those books sitting next to my bed. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/End-Overeating-Insatiable-American-ebook/dp/B0025VKJNA/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#038;m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&#038;s=digital-text&#038;qid=1270875613&#038;sr=1-1">&#8220;The End of Overeating&#8221; by David Kessler, MD.</a></p>
<p>Dr. Kessler,was the former head of the FDA before returning to the Bay Area for a short stint as head of the Medical Center at U.C. San Francisco. The fact that he&#8217;s currently the center of a long running legal battle over his firing, has nothing to do with the book, but it&#8217;s an interesting local note.</p>
<p>In his book, Dr. Kessler lays out his case that overeating has become an epidemic in the US, aided by food manufacturers who have figured out how to get Americans to buy more of their product. </p>
<p>Dr. Kessler maintains that by focusing on the addition of sugar, fat and salt, food producers have found a sure-fire way to tap the psychological impulses that create overeating. American consumers don&#8217;t have a chance unless they figure out a way to avoid prepared food at the grocery store and fast food everywhere else.</p>
<p>He lays out the physical, psychological and emotional basis for overeating as a disease and like others, notably Michael Pollan, he suggests that eating less processed food is the answer to beating the health issues which have already surfaced in this country and are starting to show up around the world.</p>
<p>The book is well written with logical arguments and consistent conclusions. Dr. Kessler, in his position at the FDA clearly had access to  sources that might not talk to you and I so he&#8217;s able to lay out the industry&#8217;s side of the story, in disturbing detail.</p>
<p>My only criticism is that he puts most of the responsibility for solving the problem on individual Americans, asking them to develop strategies for avoiding the traps spread by the food industry.</p>
<p>Maybe Dr. Kessler knows first hand that the politicians are unwilling to face the issue, but it seems to me the fight against overeating has to start in Washington. Despite that, Dr. Kessler&#8217;s 250 pages add another voice pleading to fix the American food supply and it&#8217;s worth reading.</p>
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		<title>Real Estate Roulette</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/real-estate-roulette/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/real-estate-roulette/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 21:17:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hawaii]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A huge percentage of Hawaii real estate owners were investors just flipping property. Like other vacation destinations such as Florida, Arizona or Las Vegas, Hawaii property values got clobbered over the last three years.
What sold for well over $1million in 2007 is now priced at $600,000 thanks to the large number of foreclosures and short [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A huge percentage of Hawaii real estate owners were investors just flipping property. Like other vacation destinations such as Florida, Arizona or Las Vegas, Hawaii property values got clobbered over the last three years.</p>
<p>What sold for well over $1million in 2007 is now priced at $600,000 thanks to the large number of foreclosures and short sales. According to my friend in the business, the problem is that current buyers – and there are many people on the Big Island shopping for property – are trying to time the market.</p>
<p>Countless books on economic psychology explain why everyone hates to pay too much, but it’s starting to get a bit irrational. According to one agent people are coming with their minds made up. ‘They think that if they wait longer they can get a better deal, or that they can purchase via a short sale and really make a killing, but they don’t realize what it’s going to cost them.</p>
<p>As federal reserve programs holding down interest rates expire in a few months the cost of borrowing will increase, she pointed out. Plus a short sale often takes 9 months to complete and  right up until the end the bank can change its mind. It may cost more to buy from an owner but loans are available and you’re getting a normal closing for a property at half price.</p>
<p>There is still a large number of foreclosed units, especially in the condo market she says, but the pressure to sell isn’t the same as a single family home, so many of the banks just hold on to the property and will wait for prices to increase.</p>
<p>Plus the homeowner trying to arrange a short sale does not have an easy time proving to the bank that the sale should be allowed and often the difference has to be made up by the seller. That doesn’t even include the tax folks who tend to count your ‘loss’ as a tax gain – especially since most of the properties are vacation homes, not primary residences.</p>
<p>So the good news is that there seems to be lots of potential buyers, the bad news is that they may be waiting for conditions that will never come. If I had any money, I’d invest and plan to sell in about three years when the bust cycle returns to boom.</p>
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		<title>The Joint is Jumpin&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://ericriess.com/the-joint-is-jumpin/</link>
		<comments>http://ericriess.com/the-joint-is-jumpin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hawaii]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[observations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ericriess.com/?p=151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For a variety of reasons many people see Hawaii as the &#8216;canary in the coal mine&#8217; &#8211; a predictor of what&#8217;s to come for the nation&#8217;s economy.
So, I thought I&#8217;d check in with some friends there and see what the future may hold for the mainland. Hawaii has been hit hard by the bursting real [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For a variety of reasons many people see Hawaii as the &#8216;canary in the coal mine&#8217; &#8211; a predictor of what&#8217;s to come for the nation&#8217;s economy.</p>
<p>So, I thought I&#8217;d check in with some friends there and see what the future may hold for the mainland. Hawaii has been hit hard by the bursting real estate bubble and the general retrenching of the US consumer.</p>
<p>Happily my friends, who deal with reality and not economic theory, are actually optimistic for the first time in many months.</p>
<p>First of all, this is whale season, the according to everyone the joint is jumpin’ – literally – so the tourists and residents are seeing a great show out in the water.</p>
<p> A friend who works at the airport in Kona told me, that tourist traffic is up. “The tourism bureau has been saying traffic was down 10% last year, but it was really closer to 30-40%,’ he says, “but now, there has been an increase, probably because the airlines have dropped the fares.” He admits it’s not back to what it was 3 years ago, but at least it’s headed in the right direction.</p>
<p>Further evidence of an increase can been seen in the food business, where many businesses either went broke of cut back hours. Several stopped serving lunch, but one manager friend said they have decided to open up again for lunch starting April 1.</p>
<p>According toa property manager, the condo rental market seems to be picking up too. “We’re going to have our first full quarter in the black in over two years,” she said noting that occupancy percentages were almost 80% for the first three months of the year.</p>
<p>People are still waiting until the last minute to book vacations, but as the weather has gotten colder in the western US and Canada, booking have increased from, Colorado, Utah and Canada where snow-storm after snow-storm has left people looking for an escape.</p>
<p>Another rental agent pointed out that many visitors used to head for Mexico, but between the kidnappings and drug violence they figure “why chance it.” Plus as one agent noted, “they can keep their money in the US.”</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll tell you what my real estate friends are saying out in the middle of the Pacific. But until then, the next time you read a story about an economists making a prediction based on numbers and charts, suggest “On the other hand, here’s what the people on the ground have to say.”</p>
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